The depletion of resources and of our system

Natural resources, which have been driving economic growth since the beginning of the industrial era, have seen their consumption soar in the second half of the 20^th century.

The energy shortage

Fossil fuels currently provide 80% of the world's energy: petroleum (40%), coal (20%) and gas (20%). At the current rate of consumption, world reserves are estimated at 40 years for oil, 60 years for gas and 200 years for coal ^{(1 ; 2)}. The decline in these reserves will entail a production peak (or Hubbert Peak, named after the geophysicist who, in 1956, foresaw the 1970 oil production peak in the United States) followed by a slowdown of this production.

One can imagine the significant changes which our society faces when confronted with the decline of fossil fuels while global energy demand increases by an average of 1.6% per year ⁽²⁾. A report commissioned by the United States Department of Energy demonstrates the need to initiate energy adaptation 10 to 20 years before oil production hits its peak in order to prevent a massive shortage lasting several decades ⁽³⁾. But even if the biggest optimists imagine that an "oil peak" will occur between 2020 and 2040 ⁽⁴⁾, most experts believe that the oil production peak is happening right now ^{(5 ; 6)}... As the IPCC's scenarios ⁽⁷⁾ take into account fossil fuel reserves that are higher than those generally agreed upon by the scientific community ⁽⁶⁾, changes in society related to the energy shortage could be even more pressing than those related to climate.

The widespread depletion of resources

Fossil fuels are not the only natural resources that are running out. Metal reserves are estimated between 20 years (zinc, lead) and 200 years (aluminium). Iron reserves are believed to last a little over a century ⁽⁸⁾. Although intensive agriculture, which consumes a significant quantity of phosphate fertilisers, still represents the most common form of agriculture, the extraction of phosphate reached its peak in 1989 and reserves are estimated between 50 and 100 years ⁽⁶⁾. Overall, many resources will likely be depleted in less than a century, a small timeframe on a historical time scale.

Beyond the necessary adjustment, this widespread shortage leads to fear of an extensive "resource battle". The struggle for access to arable land has been raging for decades in Latin America. The natural wealth present in the Democratic Republic of Congo has fuelled greed and contributed to an armed conflict. Whether we examine the situation in Biafra or in the Gulf, oil has been the indirect cause of many wars.

Towards the end of a system?

Physics has principles. The planet and its reserves have limits. Since the beginning of the industrial age, ideologies that have followed, even opposing ones, which have built "Western societies", have something in common: they deny these biophysical limits. They have adopted specific vocabulary: the Earth provides resources for mankind's production; mankind creates its own system that is disconnected from nature, which it now refers to as its environment.

In the last century, "modern" economies have achieved wonders: by replacing "expensive human labour" with "cheap and powerful" energy, they have ensured their food independence, achieved an unprecedented leap in technology and increased the comfort level of their population. But what will happen in a world where energy is lacking and where, as we often repeat, people can no longer find enough work? In recent times, everyone expected the risks that are linked to an energy shortage: it results in higher oil prices, undermines our energy-intensive economy, hurts employment once again and threatens countries with recession. We gradually admit the obvious: the cheapest, most available and least polluting kilowatt, is the one which we don't consume! But another obvious point has a harder time becoming apparent: leading the energy transition requires that society changes.

Written by Florent Planas for "One year for the Planet" (translated by Anyword).

Find out more…

1. BP, Statistical review of world energy
2. AIE (Agence Internationale de l’Energie)
3. R. Hirsch, R. Bezdek, R. Wendling, Peaking of world oil production : impacts, mitigation, and risk management (US Department of Energy, 2005)
4. Michel Barnier, Atlas pour un monde durable (Acropole, 2007)
5. Jean-Marc Jancovici, www.manicore.com
6. Yves Cochet, Antimanuel d’écologie (Bréal, 2009)
7. Groupe d'Experts Intergouvernemental sur l'Evolution du Climat (GIEC), 4^ème rapport d’évaluation (2007)
8. M. Hauschild, H. Wenzel, Environmental assessment of products, vol. 2 (1998)
9. Colin Campbell, (Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gaz, 2005)
10. To better understand the assessment of the oil production peak, read Colin Campbell's excellent letter in the Guardian (11/2009), available, for example, at the following address: http://contreinfo.info/article.php3?id_article=2888